These developments helped explain why there was a one-12 months hole between the first and second increases in the federal funds goal rate in essentially the most-latest episode. Another key distinction is that in three of the primary four episodes, the FOMC continued to tighten after the yield curve inverted; a recession then followed shortly thereafter. However, within the ultimate episode, the FOMC ended its tightening coverage about eight months before the yield curve inverted. In this paper we current and describe a big quarterly frequency, macroeconomic database. As in our previous work on FRED-MD, our goal is just to provide a publicly obtainable source of macroeconomic “massive knowledge” that is updated in real time utilizing the FRED database.
For example, in the first 4 epi...Read More